Central Bank revises Growth Projections Upward

2nd February 2018

The Central Bank revised its projections upwards and said it expected to see 6.8 per cent GDP growth this year, falling to 4.8 per cent in 2019 and 4 per cent in 2020.

Malta's economy is likely to grow faster than first expected over the next couple of years, the Central Bank has said.

In a report on its outlook for the 2017-2020 period, the Central Bank revised its projections upwards and said it expected to see 6.8 per cent GDP growth this year, falling to 4.8 per cent in 2019 and 4 per cent in 2020.

That compares to the 5.6 per cent growth it previously expected to see in 2018 and 4.5 per cent in 2019.

The bank said there was a "positive surprise" in growth data for the third quarter of last year, which bumped GDP growth during that year to 7 per cent.

The Central Bank added that its projections for the government balance were also looking better than first expected, with the debt-to-GDP ratio falling to 44.6 per cent by 2020.

Key projections the Central Bank has made for the period up to 2020 include:

·         Domestic demand replacing net exports as the main driver of economic growth

·         Projected output growth will outpace GDP in 2019 and 2020

·         Unemployment will rise very slightly to 4.1 per cent in 2019 and 4.2 per cent in 2020

·         Wages to rise in 2018 by 3.5 per cent, before growth decelerates in 2019 and 2020, as productivity growth slows

·         Major health and education construction projects will provide a temporary boost to private investment

·         Government budget to remain in surplus, though the surplus will decline to 0.6 per cent by 2020 as gross saving deteriorate and capital expenditure picks up pace

·         Export of services will moderate from "very high rates", though that will be compensated by an increase in the export of goods

·         Inflation to rise slightly and settle at around 2 per cent

GDP projections, the Central Bank noted, could turn out to be overly cautious if services exports continued to perform extremely strongly or if wages picked up more than expected, while geopolitical factors or delays in major health and education projects could lead to figures lower than those it was projecting.

"Moreover, the rapid growth the Maltese economy has experienced in the last few years may impinge on infrastructure such that physical constraints may limit future expansions," the CBM added.


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