Political Headwinds Threaten Global Trade, Leading Businesses To Change Course

1st November 2018

82 per cent of companies in the EU are positive about the trading environment, according to the 34-market report. 

Businesses are upbeat about their prospects, encouraged by customer demand and favourable economic conditions, but are revising their strategies as protectionism dents the outlook for international trade, according to a new HSBC survey of over 8,500 companies: ‘Navigator: Now, next and how for business’.

More than three quarters (78 per cent) of companies are positive about the trading environment, rising to 86 per cent in ASEAN countries and 82 per cent in the EU, according to the 34-market report. Over a third (35 per cent) expect increasing consumption to be the top driver of their growth in the next year, with almost as many (33 per cent) focusing on the economic environment and 32 per cent on technology to increase efficiencies or develop new products and services.

Yet at the same time, political headwinds are gaining strength as 63 per cent of firms think governments are becoming more protective of their home economies, up 2 percentage points since the first quarter of 2018. For those companies with a negative outlook on their company’s prospects, tariffs and the US-China trade dispute are the main reasons for pessimism (31 per cent each). The cost of tariffs is the top concern for US firms with a negative outlook (60 per cent), while in mainland China and Hong Kong the political dispute with the US is the greatest concern (65 per cent and 53 per cent respectively). In Russia (46 per cent), Germany (39 per cent) and Turkey (36 per cent), it is the wider context of geo-political tensions that alarms them most.

Reflecting these uncertainties, many companies are turning their attention to intra-regional rather than inter-regional trading opportunities. When asked about their top targets for future trade growth, the number of European companies citing Asian markets dropped from 26 per cent in the first quarter to 13 per cent now, North American firms citing Asia fell from 33 per cent to 15 per cent, and Asian companies citing North America slipped from 29 per cent to 21 per cent. At the same time, more North American companies plan to trade within their home region in the next three to five years (+5pp to 38 per cent), and more Asia-Pacific companies are looking at China specifically as a future growth market (+4pp to 16 per cent).

Noel Quinn, Chief Executive of Global Commercial Banking at HSBC

Noel Quinn, Chief Executive of Global Commercial Banking at HSBC

Noel Quinn, Chief Executive of Global Commercial Banking at HSBC, said: “Businesses are staying positive, but they’re signalling to policymakers that protectionism is a significant concern that’s reducing their appetite to grow through international trade. Some are looking closer to home for opportunities, and many are adapting their approach to stay fit for the future. We expect technology, digitisation and data to play an increasingly important strategic role by enabling businesses to develop their products and services, reach new customers and cut costs by improving operational efficiency.”

The Navigator survey also shows that more than half of companies (51 per cent) expect that free trade agreements, where they apply to their country and industry, will benefit them over the next three years. FTAs are particularly popular in emerging markets, with 60 per cent of firms saying they will have a positive impact, compared to 45 per cent of firms in developed markets.

This divergence can also been seen in perceptions of the impact of new regulations. While businesses in Ireland (61 per cent), the US (44 per cent), Singapore (40 per cent) and China (37 per cent) worry about regulations increasing the cost of doing business, their peers in countries including Vietnam (45 per cent), Thailand (43 per cent), India (39 per cent) and the UAE (37 per cent) think regulations will increase their competitiveness.

Looking at growth drivers within their direct control, the top two priorities for companies over the past two years have been to expand into new markets (28 per cent) and into new products or services (25 per cent). Looking ahead two years, their top priority (31 per cent) is to grow market share, closely followed by an emphasis on skills development and productivity enhancements (29 per cent).

Here, technology will have a key role to play. More than one in five (22 per cent) businesses has invested in research and and technology over the last two years, three quarters (75 per cent) are looking to data to drive business optimization and more than a quarter (26 per cent) consider technological advancement the top reason for choosing a supplier after cost and quality of their products.  

The full report can be accessed here


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