A 15-year cross-departmental forecast from the UK’s government has concluded that any Brexit scenario will result in Britain being poorer than it would be if it stayed in the European Union.
The most likely outcomes would mean a hit to the economy of £60bn (€68bn) and £100bn (€113bn) with a no-deal scenario costing nearly £200bn (€227bn).
The 82-page report looks at four main scenarios – the government's preferred outcome with frictionless trade; a standard free trade agreement, which means some friction at the border; a Norway-type arrangement, which would mean freedom of movement and ongoing rule taking; and finally, no deal.
All analyses assume that new trade deals will be struck with the US, China and others. But even so, together they would add only 0.2 per cent to the economy, according to this analysis.
On the first three it also looks at two immigration scenarios: the status quo - which is not government policy - and zero net inflow from the EU.
MPs are due to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal, which she insists is the only option, on 11th December.